Bayesian MMM

Optimize budget with MMM calibrated by your own experiments

Estimate channel contribution from aggregate data, anchor the model to your lift tests, compare response curves, and choose budget plans with forecasts and intervals. Privacy-safe by design with no cookies or user-level tracking.

The model, the optimizer, and the forecast in one workflow, anchored to experiments you actually ran.

Calibrated by tests

Use geo, user-level, and platform lift results as evidence for the model.

Response curves

See where channels scale, saturate, and start producing weaker marginal returns.

Budget optimizer

Compare reallocations against revenue, margin, payback, or ROAS targets.

Forecasts with intervals

Plan against scenario ranges instead of a single optimistic projection.

Powered by your test database

Calibrated by ground truth

An MMM is only as good as what anchors it. Ours uses your database of real lift tests as Bayesian priors, so results stay tied to causal reality, not just historical correlation.

Test database

Every geo test, user-level test, and platform lift study you run is stored and ready for calibration.

Bayesian priors

We turn your experimental lift into priors that guide the model and prevent unrealistic coefficients.

Validation

Hold out periods where you ran known experiments and check the model agrees with what really happened.

How it works

From raw data to a budget decision

A modern MMM is not a one-off model fit. It is a workflow that runs end to end and keeps you in the driver's seat.

1

Bring your data

Add spend, sales, and a few business drivers. Connect a file or a source with no cookies or user-level tracking required.

2

Calibrate with your tests

Pull in your geo, user-level, and platform results as priors so the model is anchored to causal truth, not just correlation.

3

Read the contribution

See how much each channel really drives across baseline, seasonality, and media, each with a clear uncertainty range.

4

Optimize & forecast

Compare budget scenarios, find the efficient allocation, and forecast revenue under each plan before you commit.

Optimization

Move budget to where it works hardest

Saturation curves show where each channel is still scalable versus where returns are flattening. The optimizer turns that into a concrete reallocation: same budget, more return.

Recommended reallocation

Current Suggested
Paid Search-19%
Paid Social+59%
Connected TV+86%
Affiliate-34%
+18% projected returnat the same total budget

Response curve · diminishing returns

efficientover-spentSpendReturn

See where each channel saturates, then shift budget to where the next dollar still works hardest.

Forecasting

See what each plan does next

Project revenue forward under each budget scenario with honest uncertainty bands, so you can plan against a range instead of a single optimistic line.

Revenue forecast by scenario

Actuals Forecast 65% CI 95% CI
Today95%65%HistoryProjection

Every forecast comes with 65% and 95% confidence intervals — so you see the likely range and exactly how sure the model is.

Channel contribution

Decompose sales into baseline, seasonality, and media. See exactly how much revenue each channel drives.

Budget optimizer

Simulate scenarios and get an allocation that maximizes revenue or ROAS against your saturation curves.

Privacy-first

No cookies, no user-level tracking. A future-proof way to measure in a privacy-centric world.

The operating workflow

Built to be re-run, not just admired once

The most useful MMM systems are operating workflows for priors, calibration, response curves, budget scenarios, and repeated validation.

Human in the loop

Built for everyone on the team

You don't need to be a statistician. The hard math runs under the hood; you point, click, and make the call with the full picture in front of you.

MarketerAnalystCMOData ScientistVP of MarketingDirectorGrowth ManagerBrand ManagerAgencyFounder
The measurement triangle

One framework. Every method talks to the others.

Geo, user-level, and platform tests all feed one central database. That shared truth calibrates and validates your MMM, while attribution keeps everything pointed in the right direction. Run any piece on its own — or run them together and let each one make the others stronger.

Inform. Attribution gives the MMM a fast, directional read on what's working between tests.

Calibrate. Incrementality tests anchor the MMM to causal ground truth, not just correlation.

Validate. Holdout tests check that attribution and the model agree with what really happened.

See the full framework
FAQ

Marketing mix modeling FAQ

Experiment OS

Measurement Ops Make the Product Repeatable

The models and tests matter, but the workflow around them matters too. Shako Stats is designed to become the operating system around experiment planning, metadata, documentation, and cross-test learning.

Data Management

Centralize datasets, mappings, and historical records so experiments and models always start from the same source of truth.

Tags and Parameters

Organize tests by audience, creative strategy, bidding logic, or business objective so learnings remain searchable and reusable.

Gantt Timeline

See what tests are planned, in-flight, or completed so overlapping interventions and measurement conflicts are easier to manage.

Documentation

Turn methodology, definitions, and experiment design guidance into an internal operating system instead of leaving them scattered across decks.

New: AI Marketing Scientist

Or just ask your AI.

Connect any AI agent through MCP/API to read-only MMM context: priors, response curves, contribution estimates, forecasts, optimizer outputs, diagnostics, and calibration tests. The statistical model stays transparent and reproducible; the AI helps the team ask better questions of the results.

Meet your AI Marketing Scientist

One-click OAuth for Claude & ChatGPT, read-only, anyone on the team can ask

Bring rigorous measurement to your team

Design tests, understand results, and connect your team to one statistics-backed measurement workspace.

Paid B2B plans built for brands & agencies.