Geo Incrementality

Causal measurement using geographic holdouts. Our platform implements synthetic control methods to measure incremental lift without reliance on user-level tracking.

Methodology & Algorithm

We utilize a custom, proprietary algorithm built from the ground up to identify optimal treatment and control regions. This is the most powerful design algorithm available, performing:

  • Market Stratification
    Clustering of geographic units based on historical conversion volume and trend correlation.
  • Synthetic Control Generation
    Construction of a counterfactual baseline using a weighted combination of control markets.
  • Power Analysis Simulation
    Monte Carlo simulations to estimate Minimum Detectable Effect (MDE) across various duration and budget scenarios.

Experimental Design Parameters

Split Ratios
50/50, 80/20, Custom
Granularity
DMA, State, Zip
Inference Method
Synthetic Control
Confidence Levels
90%, 95% (Two-sided)

Enterprise-Grade Test Management

A centralized platform to design, execute, and analyze all your geo incrementality tests.

Shako Stats - Geo Incrementality
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Shako Stats
Platform
Configuration
JD
Jane DoeData Scientist

Geo Tests

Manage your geo incrementality tests

Total Tests
24
Running
3
Completed
18
Drafts
3
Viewing 1-5 of 24
Test NameStatusTypeStart DateResults (iROAS)
Q4 Holiday Blitz - HoldoutRunningGeo HoldoutOct 15, 2025Pending
YouTube Scale TestAnalyzedScale TestSep 01, 20253.42
TikTok vs Reels InteractionAnalyzedMulti-CellAug 15, 20251.85
Summer Promo - Low SpendCompletedScale TestJul 01, 2025Calculating...
Brand Awareness LiftDraftGeo Holdout--

Supported Experimental Designs

Flexible configuration for various causal inference needs.

Geo Holdout (Exclusion)

Standard exclusion testing where a specific region is suppressed to measure the incremental contribution of a channel.

Multi-Cell Interaction

Factorial designs to measure interaction effects between multiple channels or tactics.

Scale & Spend Tests

Response curve modeling by testing varied spend levels across comparable regions.

Incrementality Measurement

Pure lift measurement for channels with poor attribution visibility (e.g., TV, OOH).

Platform Overview - Geo Incrementality Tests